Selections for Saturday 14th November
Section: Form Analysis
Account Bets
1.05 Uttox Midnight ChaseResult: 3rd @ 7/2 1 point win at 4/1
1.55 Chel Best ActorResult: PU @ 16/1 1 point win at 25/1
2.45 Uttox Peppertree LaneResult: 5th @ 11/4 2 points win at 3/1
3.10 Chel Le Beau BaiResult: 7th @ 10/1 1 point each-way at 10/1
3.20 Uttox King Jack Result: PU @ 12/1 0.5 points each-way at 16/1
As discussed in the forum last night, I’m implementing a change in staking from today. Simply, I’m allowing myself the opportunity to play 1pt bets again.
Yesterday was the final straw and I must be the only service in the market at the moment where the mentions are beating the account bets hands down and simply, I need to try to throw my net a bit wider to try to catch more winners. Last month, weaker bets outperformed account bets by a long way and after yesterday’s 3 winners, it’s the same this month and therefore, I need to try to catch some of these so called weaker bets.
I think the truth of the matter is that when I’m reading things well, my weaker bets aren’t that weak anyway as my judgement can be really good at times even though they are a bit speculative at times. My issue has always been when I lose form, the weaker bets become really poor and if the stronger bets aren’t doing well, the weaker bets don’t really help the situation.
For the past 6 weeks, I’ve been reading things well, looking at lots of races and simply, the account bets which have had less questions to answer than many of the weaker bets have let me down badly. Hence, I need to try something else.
I’m not expecting a big uplift in the number of bets and there won’t be as many bets as last winter, so we’re probably looking at 30-40 bets a month now. I’m hoping that things just continue as they have been as I’ve been reading many races well but not been winning any points from tipping them, so as long as I keep reading things well, hopefully this will help us get back on track.
For those of you that prefer only following a select number of bets, just continue with the 2pt+ bets and leave the 1pt bets. The 1pt bets are likely to be many hit or miss types as before and it wouldn’t take many 1pt bets to win to recoup losses as they are higher in average price usually but again, they can create losing runs. However, the strong bets are doing a good job of that themselves! L
So, today’s a new day again for the service but please don’t expect an immediate improvement. Obviously, I hope this is the case but we’ll see what happens.
Today is fairly busy but that’s mainly due to it being a Saturday. I quite like King Jack and if the horse takes to fences this year, he’d be the best bet I think as he’s the most overpriced but it’s a bit risky which explains why it’s only a 1pt bet. I also think Peppertree Lane should win today but it has been disappointing over hurdles thus far in his career.
Yesterday was ultimate frustration for me for a variety of reasons. As soon as I heard that there was a non runner at Lingfield and it was a front runner out the race, I knew we were stuffed as the reason for the bet was the fact there was 2 front runners and lots of pace and simply, our horse was held up last and travelled like a dream but it has no pace to quicken off of. It needs a fast pace so the horses come back to him and it didn’t happen.
Arumum ran really poorly I thought even though it wasn’t beaten far in 3rd and simply, it looked like it needed the run again which is surprising as it won second time out for the last two years.
Seeing Razor Royale, Loosen My Load and most interestingly, Dark Ben win shows I am continuing to read things well and it’s just trying to get something to click to get us back on track. I thought Dark Ben was an amazing spot by me (one of the best this year!) but as I said yesterday, I couldn’t understand the price and now we know why.
Clearly, it has been plotted up for that race and an SP of 4/1 for a horse that hasn’t run for 3.5 years is a bit of a giveaway. Looking at its form, I thought it could have been a 115+ rated chaser, so it probably had a stone in hand on the form in the book and it won with any amount in hand at the end, so we’ve missed that one for sure! Just need to find another one of these in future.
Good luck for today and Saturday’s do remain my best day of the week but that’s because all my biggest days have been Saturdays in the past. About 8 big winning days and about 40 losing days! Fingers crossed we get a big day today.
Graeme