No selections for Tuesday 17th November
Section: Form Analysis
Account Bet
None
Weaker Bet
2.40 Folk Nicos Extra
3.30 Faken Weststern/Stretch The Truth (Straight Forecast!)
I spent most of my time on the 3.30 at Fakenham, convinced myself it was a 3 horse race, talked myself into believing that Dar El Salaam was a near penalty kick and unfortunately, it is now a non runner! I only had it between 3 horses and that leaves 2 possible tips but being honest, the issue now is the price. I was getting 9/2 on Dar El in a potential 3 horse race which looked a decent bet but now, I’m getting 3/1 in a potential match bet which doesn’t appeal as I can’t really separate these two horses. I’d slightly favour Weststern I think as it was closely matched with Dar El on the form book and therefore, that would be my pick. 3/1 doesn’t appeal as a bet though, so I’d possibly consider a straight forecast with the second favourite but being honest, I can’t even pick a winner at the moment, so the chance of me hitting a straight forecast must be much lower than the odds indicate, so I struggle to justify having a point on this bet. We’ll pass on the day.
I also looked at the 2.40 at Folkestone with Andrew and we both sort of agreed Nicos Extra was the likely winner but we guessed it would be very well fancied this morning. Beaten at 5/1,5/1,4/1 and 3/1 in the last 4 starts and clearly, this horse is thought to have more ability than it shows on the track. Two key pieces of form would be the 4th place to Punchestown over hurdles last season and if it repeated that off a 3lb lower mark here, it would surely win. Last time, beaten at 3/1 when only 3rd but the winner has since dotted up again and the second has won since also, so it could just be that the 6 runner race that day was a better race than it looked at the time. The issue today is simply the price and it’s hard to justify a bet on a disappointing horse like this when you are only getting 11/2 on it in a 15 runner competitive race. If it reaches 8/1 at some point (you never know!), it may be worth a point bet as I wouldn’t worry about the drift on one like this as it’s simply too short this morning.
Going to try to keep my emails a little shorter now as I need the results to do the talking! I’m fed up saying I’m doing crap!
Good luck.
Graeme