No selections for Thursday 19th November
Section: Form Analysis
Account Bets
None
Weaker Bets
2.30 Win Dalaram
2.40 Hunt Prof De L’Isle
2.50 Hereford Go West
3.00 Win Tarquinius
3.10 Hunt Seven Stars
3.30 Win Won More Night
6.00 Kemp Beckermet
I’m unexpectedly off work today which explains why I’ve mentioned 7 horses above but being honest, none stand out as account bets. I think Beckermet and Go West are closest to Account Bets but both aren’t that big a price this morning and both races are competitive. Both are handicapped to win though and if things go their way, they should run well.
I’ve given a quick reason below why I like each but being honest, it’s redundant information as I wouldn’t suggest anyone back any of these today.
Yesterday was another crap day really and both horses went off very well backed and at the off again, I was 100% happy with both selections. Again, after the race, I was 100% disappointed with the way they ran and it was another small loss on the day.
I’m not totally up to date with my results but when I get them up to date in my spreadsheet (today hopefully), the one thing I’m going to look at again is the performance according to whether horses shorten or drift pre-race. 3 months ago, I looked at it and simply, all my profits were generated from horses that were well backed and horses which drifted were causing the losses.
In the past two months, I’ve put us on an amazing amount of well backed horses and for whatever reason, they haven’t performed as the market thinks they should have done or as I think they should have done. I’ve always said my edge is finding overpriced horses as at the off, if you are usually getting bigger odds than the SP and more importantly, if the horse is well backed on course, it’s usually a sign that you know what you’re doing. Clearly, this formula no longer applies to my selections and it hasn’t been that way for the past few months. I can’t remember too many bad selections in the past 7 weeks but simply, they aren’t winning.
I’m not wanting to say I’ve given up as that would be untrue but simply, I’m doing what I have always done and if it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen. If I was picking out drifters every day or playing in the wrong races or so on, I could try to fix it but I can’t fix something when I think I’m doing most things right at the game, so no complaints any more from me.
Good luck today and hopefully we’ll get some selections later this week.
Graeme