1.30 Ascot Gan OnResult: Uh oh! 2 points win at 7/1
2.10 Hunt AkramResult: Uh oh! 1 point win at 5/1
2.20 Hay Oscar ParkResult: Uh oh! 0.5 points each-way at 20/1)
2.20 Hay McmurraghResult: Uh oh! 0.5 points each-way at 25/1
2.35 Ascot Elusive DreamResult: Uh oh! 1 point each-way at 14/1
2.45 Hunt Lidjo De RougeResult:Uh oh! 1 point each-way at 13/2
3.25 Hay Malko De BeaumontResult: Uh oh! 1 point win at 12/1

Weaker Bets

12.35 Hunt Bergo (Too short)
12.45 Hay Tidal Fury (Too Short)
12.55 Ascot River Ripples (Too Short)
1.15 Hay Mr Thriller (Too Short) – A banker if it runs to form.
2.05 Ascot Lord Henry (Too tough a race)
2.55 Hay Notre Pere (Too Short)
3.10 Ascot Planet of Sound (Too short)
6.00 Kemp River Kirov (Too Short)

One of the best day’s racing of the year in terms of races that are suited to tipping and I can’t help but feel today will be a pivotal day for many of you and your portfolios. It’s a pivotal day for me I’m sure.

I’ve only discussed the account bet races below and I’ve not gone into much depth in the write up. Simply, I don’t have the time. If anyone has any questions, drop me an email/PM and I’ll reply tonight with why I picked any horse (win or lose).

Yesterday was another crazy day with a 12/1 and 4/1 winner from the 3 weaker bets. The account bet was backed as if defeat was out of the question, opened on course at 10/1, backed down to 8/1 and then decides to run a stinker as the other horse on the form line wins the race. Again, I can only really laugh at this and clearly, the horse has just had an off day but why it always happens why I’ve tipped it, I’ve no idea.

The weaker bets are on course for the best month ever and I don’t think there’s a hotter tipster in the country than the weaker bets with 7 winners from the last 22 selections at nice prices. Unfortunately, I’ve now tipped 30 straight losers on the account bets and simply, something has to give here. Today, 7 strong bets, 8 weaker bets. Let’s see what happens.

Good luck today and I hope it’s a profitable weekend for all of you.

Graeme

1.30 Ascot

Not many of these strike you as well handicapped horses on what they have achieved and the one that does stand out is 2/1 favourite.

However, Gan On is a very interesting contender and I’m amazed we can a decent price on this as I’d have this as second favourite in here today.

The horse did nothing in two bumpers but on her hurdle debut, she stepped up massively and was second to Cool Friend. The 4th won the other day off a mark of 97 and the winner is now rated 125. Hence, a mark of 112 for Gan On looks very fair based on this run.

However, last time, she stepped up again and absolutely bolted up as I saw a recording of the race that day and made note of this one. It beat a decent horse called Love of Tara and Mayberry (a bumper winner) back in 4th.

Based solely on this run, the handicapper has found a mark of 112 and Love of Tara is rated 109 now as it gave this one 7lbs. However, Gan On was laughing at that horse and therefore, I’m sure Gan On is much better rated than 112.

Cleary, this is a tough race and it steps up markedly in class but it has a fitness advantage and is bang in form and therefore, I think it’s got a great chance of upsetting the fav if it can run to the same as last time.

2 points win at 7/1 on Gan On

2.10 Hunt

Akram has easily the best form on show and anyone who saw this horse laugh at Weststern two starts ago has to believe it is still well handicapped off a mark of 117 (5lbs higher).

Last time, Harry Tricker won, Zabeel Palace was 2nd and this one couldn’t go with them two. Well, I’m not surprised really as both of these have franked the form massively since and this one was held up last in the race and the race was over by the time he came through the field.

The horse steps up 4f today which is a doubt and therefore, I couldn’t go mad with this one but I do think it’s worth a point win.

1 point win on Akram at 5/1

2.20 Haydock

A really tough looking race but not too many want 3m on soft ground. One horse that does is Oscar Park and I thought this ran really well last time out and it needed the run badly that day. I can see this one improving massively on that run and therefore, off a decent looking mark, I’ll go with this.

Mcmurrough has a very lenient handicap mark based on one or two of his runs but simply, he hasn’t been performing that well this season. It could just be that this big field, strong pace over a longer trip and soft ground might bring about a lot of improvement and the horse has a touch of class and is racing off 10 stone 2lbs. Hard to not take a chance on one like this with the stable winning the race last year with According To Pete.

0.5 points each-way on Oscar Park at 20/1
0.5 points each-way on Mcmurrough at 25/1

2.35 Ascot

A fascinating race here and Zaynar, Karabak and Katchit are all interesting horses. All 3 are class horses but all 3 make their seasonal debut.

At the prices, Karabak would be my pick of the 3. Zaynar will need the run I think and Katchit isn’t the horse he was.

However, they meet a class horse in Elusive Dream and simply, you can ignore the last run as that was on soft ground.

On good ground, this horse is a very decent 2m4f specialist and on his two starts last year, he chased home Chomba Womba and Crack Away Jack in this race 12 months ago and then fell heavily which kept him off the track. However, even when he fell, he was cruising behind Punchestowns and simply, he looked a decent horse.

I can’t believe he’s getting weight from decent novices making the step up in grade and therefore, at double figure odds, I think he rates massive value.

Last year’s race was possibly a better race than this one and he’s had a pipeopener now to blow away any cobwebs, so he should be set to go today.

1 point each-way on Elusive Dream at 14/1

2.45 Hunt

Torn between Mister McGoldrick and Lidjo De Rouge here but at the odds, I have to favour Lidjo.

The key to betting in this race is very few of these are well handicapped horses or have any improvement in them at all.

However, Lidjo hasn’t exactly ran in many easy races and at first glance, it doesn’t look well handicapped off a mark which is 12lbs above his last winning mark but last season, he ran in some really tough races and performed well.

Last time out, he ran a very encouraging race behind Poquelin and Hold Em at Cheltenham and most of the horses that have come from that race have franked the form since (apart from Cossack Dancer who I tipped obviously!)

Anyway, this is a slight drop in class today even though it doesn’t look that way as there are very few improving types going here and apart from Mister McGoldrick, I don’t see too many who can win off this mark.

1 point each-way on Lidjo De Rouge at 13/2

3.25 Hay

I was between 3 horses in here today as I don’t like a whole host of these runners as many won’t go on the ground. Toss of a coin decision here with Malko De Beaumont, Morgan Be and Appleaday. All 3 horses have 100% optimal conditions in my opinion.

They are all above their last winning mark which means none jump out as being well handicapped but when you get into the form of Malko De Beaumont, it’s hard to not think this is the best handicapped.

The issue is the form this season as it has pulled up and finished tailed off last.

However, that sort of creates the price today and therefore, in a race where I don’t fancy too much, I think this has to be worth a shot.

The key piece of form is the last win of this horse over C&D on the same sort of ground. The 2nd was Atoucbetweencara (now rated 30lbs higher) and the 3rd was Cant Buy Time (now rated 15lbs higher).

Malko beat these two fair and square and back at his favourite track over 3m in very testing conditions, I think this should bounce back today.

Interestingly, I think the horse may enjoy racing over these longer trips with no weight on his back as a few times he has dropped in class and tried to give weight away to inferior rivals, he has struggled.

On his first start this season at Carlisle, he was very well fancied in a race that was as good as this one in terms of competitiveness and simply, the stable could offer no explanation for the poor run. Last time, the trip was too short and he was carrying top weight that day, so I think he just struggled a bit.

This is one of these where it is risky but it has the form in the book and importantly, it has optimal conditions and is a nice price, so it’s worth a point.

1 point win on Malko De Beaumont at 12/1