Account Bet
3.00 Kel Kirkside Pleasure 1 point each-way at 20/1
Weaker Bets
12.45 Kelso Bishop’s Heir
1.15 Kelso Bay Cherry
3.35 Kelso Le Platino
I wasn’t a fan of the other meetings when looking at the racing last night as I wasn’t sure about the ground and at least at Kelso, I knew it would be very soft today and thankfully, it hasn’t been abandoned!
I’ve gone with one selection and I like this one today but it’s a big price. I think Kirkside Pleasure is definitely overpriced and I think it should be about half this price today if I’m honest, so it’s an easy bet.
Two of the weaker bets are both horses who I think can go on from whatever happens today. James Ewart can’t buy a winner which puts me off the first one but I think this has much potential than the odds on fav, so if it was fit and 100% ready to go, it would beat the fav I think. Worried it will just run a nice race today though as it won’t be killed on that ground since it’s a nice horse.
Bay Cherry is one I was going to tip earlier this week but the meeting was abandoned. I think this is very well handicapped but earlier this week, it was going to run in a 4m chase on heavy ground and today, it’s 2m6f on heavy ground. I think this needs an extreme test of stamina from what I’ve seen on the track but long-term, this will be better than this handicap mark I’m sure.
Le Platino looked too short this morning at 5/2 and 11/4 and I can see it is drifting. I’d say 5/1 would be a real nice price for this one and I’m sure it may reach that on Betfair at some point today. In terms of tipping it, I can’t really as it’s 5/2 with WH and 9/2 with Sportingbet. 5/1 Min Price would be a point each-way I guess but as I’ve said before, I don’t like waiting on horses to drift to tip them as it looks like something is wrong with this one if I’m honest. Interesting to see how it runs but it looked a decent shout to me.
Yesterday saw another nice winner for the weaker bets (8/1 SP) and I think 5 of the 7 ran nice races. Again, does no harm to be reading things well and hopefully it will translate into an account bet winning for us very soon!
Good luck today.
Graeme
12.45 Kel
I really like Bishop’s Heir’s potential and I’m sure that this will have a decent season up North in novice hurdles. The way it won a bumper in atrocious conditions makes me think it will rellish today’s ground and simply, if I knew this was 100% straight today, I’d back it to beat the favourite. Unfortunately, the stable have started slowly and with no winners this season, I can see this one running a nice race before going in next time.
1.15 Kel
Bay Cherry is very well handicapped off a mark of only 111. First time up, was only 4/1 to win a novice chase as it was a very good point to point horse. It finished behind Will Be Done, Nine De Sivola and Coe. Even though beaten a fair way, these horses are all rated 130+ now and have competed in some very decent chases at the end of last season, so it had an impossible task that day.
Second start, miles clear of the remainder and it bumped into a James Ewart horse called Overlady. This bolted up next time also and simply, Bay Cherry is a very well handicapped stayer.
It looks slow though and therefore, considering it has only run in 2 chases over long trips, I can see this one needing a marathon trip to be seen at his best. Earlier this week, it was due to run in a 4m chase and I was really keen on it but today, it’s only 2m6f and although it will take some getting, something might have much more toe than this one.
3.00 Kel
A really interesting handicap chase where many of these go very well on heavy ground. Difficult to rule many our for certain but there is a horse lurking on 10 stone that appears very well handicapped and unexposed on this ground over fences. Importantly, it had a pipeopener last time out and the second time out record reads 2424 over the lifetime of it. Importantly, the form on soft/heavy reads 4312PU4F235.
When I tell you it’s running off a rating of 88 today and was placed off marks of 93 and 97 over hurdles at this time last year, you can see how well handicapped it is today.
Simply, it hasn’t had many opportunities to race on soft/heavy over fences and importantly, it hasn’t raced over 3 miles often although it shapes as if it always wants a longer trip over shorter.
One thing that I’ve always noticed about this one is that it is often backed on course and therefore, I was really interested to see money for it last time (16/1 to 10/1 on course) and simply, it had no form fresh, the ground was wrong and the trip was too short. I think connections think this a better horse than the current mark.
That day, Garleton won the race and was 13/2 to win the race. Kirkside was 10/1.
Today, Garleton is 5/2 and Kirkside is 20/1. Kirkside is better than Garleton on softer ground and today, it gets to lump 10 stone around whereas Garleton has to lump 11 stone. Weight may matter at the end of a 3m chase on this ground.
Earlier this week, Ryan Mania was booked to ride Kirkside which was an eyecatching booking but his stable have a runner in the race, so he has had to switch to that one. Keith Mercer takes the ride though and again, he’s a decent booking for this stable and with the visor on first time, I’m sure we’ll see an improved performance.
Clearly, needs a bit of luck to win as it doesn’t jump fences well which explains why it has this mark nowadays but it is definitely capable of running a much better race than the market indicates.
1 point each-way on Kirkside Pleasure at 20/1
3.35 Kel
Le Platino bolted up at Haydock last time out and today, I’m not sure this race is that much stronger. My worry was simply the price and it opened up at 5/2 and 11/4 this morning which put me off it really. It’s drifting now and it looks like it has lost a leg but it was probably a case of it being put in too short.
I couldn’t see too many who were proven in the mud and simply, I’d say this was a good EW bet to nothing as it may not be that well handicapped after last time but it may still be good enough to beat most of these. Can’t get a price though.
Related posts:
- No Selections on Monday Account Bets None Horses to watch None I only looked...
- Selection for Monday 24th August Account Bet 4.20 Ham Royal Flynn 2 points win...
- Selections for Saturday 14th November Account Bets 1.05 Uttox Midnight ChaseResult: 3rd @ 7/2 1...