Account Bets
None
Weaker Bets
2.30 Win Dalaram
2.40 Hunt Prof De L’Isle
2.50 Hereford Go West
3.00 Win Tarquinius
3.10 Hunt Seven Stars
3.30 Win Won More Night
6.00 Kemp Beckermet
I’m unexpectedly off work today which explains why I’ve mentioned 7 horses above but being honest, none stand out as account bets. I think Beckermet and Go West are closest to Account Bets but both aren’t that big a price this morning and both races are competitive. Both are handicapped to win though and if things go their way, they should run well.
I’ve given a quick reason below why I like each but being honest, it’s redundant information as I wouldn’t suggest anyone back any of these today.
Yesterday was another crap day really and both horses went off very well backed and at the off again, I was 100% happy with both selections. Again, after the race, I was 100% disappointed with the way they ran and it was another small loss on the day.
I’m not totally up to date with my results but when I get them up to date in my spreadsheet (today hopefully), the one thing I’m going to look at again is the performance according to whether horses shorten or drift pre-race. 3 months ago, I looked at it and simply, all my profits were generated from horses that were well backed and horses which drifted were causing the losses.
In the past two months, I’ve put us on an amazing amount of well backed horses and for whatever reason, they haven’t performed as the market thinks they should have done or as I think they should have done. I’ve always said my edge is finding overpriced horses as at the off, if you are usually getting bigger odds than the SP and more importantly, if the horse is well backed on course, it’s usually a sign that you know what you’re doing. Clearly, this formula no longer applies to my selections and it hasn’t been that way for the past few months. I can’t remember too many bad selections in the past 7 weeks but simply, they aren’t winning.
I’m not wanting to say I’ve given up as that would be untrue but simply, I’m doing what I have always done and if it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen. If I was picking out drifters every day or playing in the wrong races or so on, I could try to fix it but I can’t fix something when I think I’m doing most things right at the game, so no complaints any more from me.
Good luck today and hopefully we’ll get some selections later this week.
Graeme
2.30 Win
Dalaram landed an almighty touch last season in a handicap hurdle and interestingly, it has joined a real gambling stable this season. The horse used to be very good, isn’t very good anymore but it retains enough ability to win a race, so I’m sure when they get this horse 100% spot on, they’ll land a touch with it.
I see it ran an OK race last time and it reads like it was badly in need of the run that day and it wasn’t beaten too far and therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it step up on that today.
Interestingly, it is a fairly short price today which caught my eye as usually, this is a massive double figure price but when it is a single figure price, it usually means it runs well, so maybe it will run well again today.
2.40 Hunt
A few in here look very progressive and should improve over fences. For future reference (ie. this weekend), there is a horse on the form line with Dar Es Salaam going here. Digger Gets Lucky was behind this one at Ascot, so if this wins, that punt on Dar is going to gain even more momentum!
Anyway, the one I like is the Daly horse as it was always well fancied in handicap hurdles off this sort of mark when in reality, it was always a chaser in the making.
The stable have a great record at the course and therefore, I can see Prof De L’Isle running well but it isn’t exactly a massive price today.
2.50 Here
Go West is a horse I really like and the form of the last two races has worked out like a dream and simply, if it goes on the ground today, I expect it to win.
My issue is simply the price and at 5/2, I don’t think I’d be going mad on it. I expect it to win if it jumps around though and handles the ground but it’s an amateur race and therefore, I’m not suggesting a back on a favourite in this race.
3.00 Winc
Tarquinius ran really well last time out on his seasonal debut and the winner has since followed up again since and therefore, it could be this one is quite well handicapped today.
Again though, it isn’t a massive price and I can’t see it shortening much from here, so the bookies are taking no chances.
3.10 Hunt
I thought Seven Stars ran very well last time out and wasn’t exactly given a hard time of it.
Issue today is simply the favourite will surely win this, so we’re playing for second place at best I think. Not a fan of EW bets when you can’t win, so a small place only bet may be the best shout but it isn’t exactly nailed on to place!
3.30 Win
Won More Night is a bit of a guess here but it ran better last time than it looked (brought down when going well) and the stable are in very good form at the moment.
Looking at the profile of it, it’s not one you can back I think with any confidence which puts me off it considerably today but keen to see how it runs.
6.00 Kemp
Beckermet is handicapped to win and I liked it when I saw it last night but I’m amazed it’s only 7/1 today. It’s a very competitive race and this is drawn 1 and there is a lot of pace in here, so it is unlikely to get the race run to suit.
I was hoping we’d get a decent price due to the draw factor as 1 is a coffin box around here over this trip but it does race up with the pace, so it should get across no probs from the outside.
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