Account Bets
8.50 Kemp Confuchias 1 point each-way at 7/1, 6/1 Min Price
9.20 Kemp Fault 1 point each-way at 6/1
Weaker Bet
6.50 Kemp Woodcote
As mentioned in the forum, I spent a good bit of time looking at Hexham last night as I was hoping it would be on but unfortunately, the card has been lost. I had a couple of selections there but these can wait for another day. I did look at Kempton though just in case and therefore, I’m happy to play in a couple of races there. I’ve mentioned Woodcote but I can’t really tip it to you guys as it has finished last for the last 6 races and finished about an hour after the other horses too, so it really isn’t enjoying this game at the moment. I do think it’s interesting Kirby is back on and simply, if it decides to run a race, it would make all and laugh at these tonight. Too risky though as I’m just guessing.
In the 8.50 race, we have a well fancied horse from Godolphin and being honest, I can’t pick too many holes in the form of it. However, it meets a horse in Confuchias who used to be very good, lost his way somewhat this summer on turf but importantly, ran well last time out. Back to a place he likes and I can’t help but feel they have planned this race for it as it won it last year and therefore, against a 4/7 shot, I think it’s worth a shot each-way. The other possible tip in here is Soccerjackpot to make all from the best draw as there is no other pace in the race. Unfortunately, the last three times I’ve employed this tactic at Kempton, something else has made all and won the race. 
I prefer Confuchias as an each-way bet though as it has the more backclass.
In the last, Fault doesn’t jump off the page as the best handicapped horse but the stable can do no wrong at the minute and the horse is 2 from 2 at Kempton. It has looked like it has been wanting a step up to 7f and therefore, that may see it in a better light and bring about some improvement. The best handicapped horse is Musical Script but it’s a bit of a bridle horse and although it is handicapped to win, I don’t trust this horse much. Happy with Fault as the selection.
It was nice to see me read another two races well yesterday and if it wasn’t for a terrible jump at the last from the Irish horse in the last race, the forecast could have been on. I was amazed at Nicos Extra’s SP and as I said yesterday, it was always likely this horse was better than it had been shown as they’d got stuck into it on every start and it kept going off at short prices and losing. They recouped their money yesterday I’m sure and much more.
I mentioned this in the email yesterday but the form of Dar Es Salaam tied in very closely with Weststen and therefore, seeing Western win only helps boost the form of Dar Es Salaam. Simply, Dar is walking around with a handicap mark of 95 when in reality, it is about a 110 rated animal. I’m sure the stable know it, I’m sure others who read the form book know it and therefore, it’s just a case of finding the right race and ground.
The horse is entered on Friday, Saturday and Sunday twice and simply, we’ll lump on this one wherever it goes I think as long as it runs in a poor handicap. Clearly, we’ll not be the only ones employing this strategy and therefore, I’m not sure we’ll get that opportunity in a poor race. They have it entered in a listed £25k novice hurdle on Saturday at Haydock which makes me laugh as it is only rated 95, so I can’t see them racing this on heavy ground off level weights as it would be about 3 stone worse off than in a handicap with some in that race.
I think Friday’s race at Kelso is the best chance but that race yesterday was perfect for it as it was taking on horses rated as low as this one is. In the 2 handicaps it is entered in, it will be running off bottom weight against better horses, so we can’t really go lumping on it in these races. We’ll see what happens. If I was the stable, I’d hold off until next week and find the right race. Even better, I’d have run it yesterday!
Good luck today.
Graeme
8.50 Kemp
The horse with the most backclass in here is Confuchias and this won the race last year and importantly, it was carrying a 7lb penalty that night due to the fact it had won a Group 3 the previous year. Tonight, the only penalised horse in the race is Carcinetto and therefore, this should be easier for Confuchias than last year’s race.
After that win last year, it was rated 105 and it was then beaten in 2 listed races at Kempton but wasn’t disgraced. It then went to Dubai to run and simply, it was running OK off of very high marks. This year, it transferred to the Pat Eddery stable and over a trip too short for it and on ground too fast for it, it plummeted in the handicap. However, last time, it returned to form back over 7f and on soft ground and therefore, it turns up to this race tonight in decent form.
It is only rated 93 now and therefore, strictly speaking, it has a bit to do on the ratings against a few of these and against the fav. However, when this was last seen at Kempton, it was rated 105 and won this race last year rated 101.
Clearly, there is guesswork involved here but there has to be a chance that this hasn’t deteriorated as much on the AW at Kempton as it has on turf and therefore, if we assume this could still be a 100 rated horse or so tonight, it would shake up this favourite.
The other one I like is the Clive Cox horse as it looks the only pace in the race. Soccerjackpot also goes very well fresh and therefore, I don’t mind the absence it has had. However, it needs to improve to trouble the favourite and I’d rather go with the proven class of one with the ability to bounce back tonight.
No obvious reasons to take on the fav apart from the price I think. Been beaten at a short price before and takes on a few here who love Kempton, so it may be vulnerable although if it runs to its mark, only Confuchias can beat it I think.
1 point each-way on Confuchias at 7/1
9.20 Kemp
I think Fault stands out here due to the fact it used to be a very good horse and simply, it has dropped down to a rating it is now competitive off of. It finally won a race 3 starts ago here over 6f and since then, it has run average races at Wolverhampton and Lingfield.
However, when you look back, it is clearly better at Kempton as it won its only other AW race at the track and therefore, it is defending an unbeaten record tonight.
It has been running like it wanted a step up to 7f and when they tried it over 7f two starts back at Wolverhampton, it ran very well late in the day to snatch 3rd. I think they may ride it more prominently tonight and when you look at the last Kempton race it won, this race tonight is actually a drop in class for it.
The horse it deadheated with that day has won since off a 2lb higher mark and importantly, that too stepped up from 6f, so it could be that 6f race it won was a strong run race and it suited these horses who stay 6f-7f.
Clearly, this race tonight is a competitive race but I don’t see why Fault won’t run his race again.
The other big positive is the stable form and they really are in the middle of a purple patch. The stable and jockey are basically on for a hat-trick tonight as their last two runners have both won and I’m hoping we’re not jumping on the bandwagon too late.
The other obvious tip in here is Musical Script tonight and I’ve watched this one slowly drop in the handicap to get back to a winning mark. I know this horse fairly well from last winter and it’s a bit of a monkey I think, so that puts me off it as Fault looks more solid of the two, although I admit Musical is definitely better handicapped.
1 point each-way on Fault at 6/1
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