Account Bet
None
Weaker Bet
2.40 Folk Nicos Extra
3.30 Faken Weststern/Stretch The Truth (Straight Forecast!)
I spent most of my time on the 3.30 at Fakenham, convinced myself it was a 3 horse race, talked myself into believing that Dar El Salaam was a near penalty kick and unfortunately, it is now a non runner! I only had it between 3 horses and that leaves 2 possible tips but being honest, the issue now is the price. I was getting 9/2 on Dar El in a potential 3 horse race which looked a decent bet but now, I’m getting 3/1 in a potential match bet which doesn’t appeal as I can’t really separate these two horses. I’d slightly favour Weststern I think as it was closely matched with Dar El on the form book and therefore, that would be my pick. 3/1 doesn’t appeal as a bet though, so I’d possibly consider a straight forecast with the second favourite but being honest, I can’t even pick a winner at the moment, so the chance of me hitting a straight forecast must be much lower than the odds indicate, so I struggle to justify having a point on this bet. We’ll pass on the day.
I also looked at the 2.40 at Folkestone with Andrew and we both sort of agreed Nicos Extra was the likely winner but we guessed it would be very well fancied this morning. Beaten at 5/1,5/1,4/1 and 3/1 in the last 4 starts and clearly, this horse is thought to have more ability than it shows on the track. Two key pieces of form would be the 4th place to Punchestown over hurdles last season and if it repeated that off a 3lb lower mark here, it would surely win. Last time, beaten at 3/1 when only 3rd but the winner has since dotted up again and the second has won since also, so it could just be that the 6 runner race that day was a better race than it looked at the time. The issue today is simply the price and it’s hard to justify a bet on a disappointing horse like this when you are only getting 11/2 on it in a 15 runner competitive race. If it reaches 8/1 at some point (you never know!), it may be worth a point bet as I wouldn’t worry about the drift on one like this as it’s simply too short this morning.
Going to try to keep my emails a little shorter now as I need the results to do the talking! I’m fed up saying I’m doing crap!
Good luck.
Graeme
3.30 Fakenham
I was drawn to the race as it contains a horse I tipped last time out in a much better race at Ascot and simply, Dar El Salaam looked a very well handicapped horse when it ran at Ascot. I tipped it that day win only at 10/1 as in 3 previous hurdle starts, it had tailed off every time but simply, it was badly out of form when they sent it over hurdles in the past and that is why it has a lowly mark of 95.
Anyway, as it turns out, it doesn’t run, so that leaves the door open for the two other well fancied horses in the race. The Irish one finished 2nd last time and the 4th has since won and the winner went on to run in a graded race, so it could be very well handicapped even off a higher mark.
Weststern has slowly returned to form and the last two starts are probably good enough to beat most of these today. It has form with Zabeel Palace and last time, was beaten by Akram who then went on to be 3rd to Harry Tricker and Zabeel Palace. Simply, in a race where there is a distinct lack of hurdle form on show, I think these two horses stand out.
Once you get past these two, you are left with the total unexposed types who look like they need to show much improved form to get anywhere near these two today.
As I said above, I liked the race as I liked the idea of 9/2 in a race where I only liked 3 but preferred one but in a race now where I only like 2, 3/1 seems a wee bit short as I couldn’t be overly confident about which one of the two is the best bet today.
I’ve suggested a S/F as a weaker bet but I don’t think I could justify having 1pt on this given my current run, so we’ll keep it off the account.
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