Account Bets
1.05 Uttox Midnight ChaseResult: 3rd @ 7/2 1 point win at 4/1
1.55 Chel Best ActorResult: PU @ 16/1 1 point win at 25/1
2.45 Uttox Peppertree LaneResult: 5th @ 11/4 2 points win at 3/1
3.10 Chel Le Beau BaiResult: 7th @ 10/1 1 point each-way at 10/1
3.20 Uttox King Jack Result: PU @ 12/1 0.5 points each-way at 16/1
As discussed in the forum last night, I’m implementing a change in staking from today. Simply, I’m allowing myself the opportunity to play 1pt bets again.
Yesterday was the final straw and I must be the only service in the market at the moment where the mentions are beating the account bets hands down and simply, I need to try to throw my net a bit wider to try to catch more winners. Last month, weaker bets outperformed account bets by a long way and after yesterday’s 3 winners, it’s the same this month and therefore, I need to try to catch some of these so called weaker bets.
I think the truth of the matter is that when I’m reading things well, my weaker bets aren’t that weak anyway as my judgement can be really good at times even though they are a bit speculative at times. My issue has always been when I lose form, the weaker bets become really poor and if the stronger bets aren’t doing well, the weaker bets don’t really help the situation.
For the past 6 weeks, I’ve been reading things well, looking at lots of races and simply, the account bets which have had less questions to answer than many of the weaker bets have let me down badly. Hence, I need to try something else.
I’m not expecting a big uplift in the number of bets and there won’t be as many bets as last winter, so we’re probably looking at 30-40 bets a month now. I’m hoping that things just continue as they have been as I’ve been reading many races well but not been winning any points from tipping them, so as long as I keep reading things well, hopefully this will help us get back on track.
For those of you that prefer only following a select number of bets, just continue with the 2pt+ bets and leave the 1pt bets. The 1pt bets are likely to be many hit or miss types as before and it wouldn’t take many 1pt bets to win to recoup losses as they are higher in average price usually but again, they can create losing runs. However, the strong bets are doing a good job of that themselves! L
So, today’s a new day again for the service but please don’t expect an immediate improvement. Obviously, I hope this is the case but we’ll see what happens.
Today is fairly busy but that’s mainly due to it being a Saturday. I quite like King Jack and if the horse takes to fences this year, he’d be the best bet I think as he’s the most overpriced but it’s a bit risky which explains why it’s only a 1pt bet. I also think Peppertree Lane should win today but it has been disappointing over hurdles thus far in his career.
Yesterday was ultimate frustration for me for a variety of reasons. As soon as I heard that there was a non runner at Lingfield and it was a front runner out the race, I knew we were stuffed as the reason for the bet was the fact there was 2 front runners and lots of pace and simply, our horse was held up last and travelled like a dream but it has no pace to quicken off of. It needs a fast pace so the horses come back to him and it didn’t happen.
Arumum ran really poorly I thought even though it wasn’t beaten far in 3rd and simply, it looked like it needed the run again which is surprising as it won second time out for the last two years.
Seeing Razor Royale, Loosen My Load and most interestingly, Dark Ben win shows I am continuing to read things well and it’s just trying to get something to click to get us back on track. I thought Dark Ben was an amazing spot by me (one of the best this year!) but as I said yesterday, I couldn’t understand the price and now we know why.
Clearly, it has been plotted up for that race and an SP of 4/1 for a horse that hasn’t run for 3.5 years is a bit of a giveaway. Looking at its form, I thought it could have been a 115+ rated chaser, so it probably had a stone in hand on the form in the book and it won with any amount in hand at the end, so we’ve missed that one for sure! Just need to find another one of these in future.
Good luck for today and Saturday’s do remain my best day of the week but that’s because all my biggest days have been Saturdays in the past. About 8 big winning days and about 40 losing days! Fingers crossed we get a big day today.
Graeme
1.05 Uttox
A simple bet here I think but there are only two horses in the race proven on heavy ground and they take on a hot favourite who could well be very good but he hasn’t run for 364 days and more importantly, he was only as good over hurdles as this horse.
Midnight Chase can’t be a confident win bet as it takes on a 5/4 shot who could be very good but at odds of 4/1 or so, it has to be worth a shot to beat the favourite going by the fact the horse has run on heavy 3 times and won all 3 races.
Importantly, the other 7 horses in the race make their seasonal debut and the only reason this one is 4/1 today is because last time, it ran poorly over fences. However, that was on good to firm ground and when you look at the form of this one, it has no form on even good ground, so it had no chance last time out.
Today, back on really soft ground, it should jump much better and with race fitness on his side against the field, I think it is a straightforward bet.
The other one proven on the ground is Maktu but that hasn’t run for a while and wasn’t as good over hurdles as Midnight Chase, so at 4/1 versus 5/1, it isn’t a hard choice I think.
1 point win on Midnight Chase at 4/1
1.55 Chel
This race is going to take some getting today I think and not many of these look sure to stay this trip or go on this ground today.
Last night, my selection was going to be Chelsea Harbour at around the 8/1 mark but this morning, thanks to Pricewise, we’re looking at 13/2 or so and although it is marginal, I’ll pass on this one now.
This is even marginal for a weaker bet I think but there is a 10 year old in here who is totally unexposed and clearly had lots of problems over the years but when this horse is 100% spot on, it may well be better than most of these.
Last time out a few weeks ago, it was 6/1 at Aintree and today, it is 25/1 which makes it interesting and simply, you need to believe that it wasn’t right last time out to back this today.
Best Actor was with Mark Pitman and then with Carl Llewellyn and now it’s with Greatrex. It has always looked a chaser in the making but it has really bad leg and never makes it onto the track to be honest.
This is about one piece of form but when this absolutely bolted up last season by 18 lengths, it had West End Rocker in 2nd, Valley Ride in 3rd and Shining Gale in 4th.
West End won next time out and was then 2nd to Shining Gale and is rated 137. Valley Ride then won two novice chases and followed up in the Summer Chase at Market Rasen. Now rated 134. Shining Gale then won a novice chase, 2nd at Aintree in the big novice and returned this season to be 3rd at Ascot off a mark of 144 and is rated 145.
Now, did Best Actor fluke an 18 length win? Not a clue but clearly, if it didn’t fluke that win, then 25/1 today off a mark of 138 is a dream price as all it has to do is repeat that last run.
The price is partly down to people’s perception of the horse. When it won that race two starts ago, RP commented that it has lots of potential.
This season, 6/1 and pulls up and they comment that it faced a stiff task off a mark of 144. Can’t have it both ways. Either has potential or not.
I think this still has potential and it copes well with soft ground. Expect this to tail off or win.
1 point win on Best Actor at 25/1
2.45 Uttox
A simple selection but Peppertree Lane hasn’t had many opportunities over hurdles as yet and on the flat, this horse loved soft ground.
For whatever reason, it hasn’t been very good over hurdles but part of that was down to the fact it has been getting held up I think.
Earlier this week, they tried to make all with it and it ran a much improved race that day to be second to The Jigsaw Man.
In time, it may well just be the case that he had an impossible task getting 6lbs that day and assuming it comes on again for this run, dropping down in class, it should be too good for all of these today if it can repeat that run.
Importantly, there is nothing else in here to try to make all and as long as they use the same tactics again, I can see this one going well. I like the fact that Durack is back on it as he knows the horse well and hopefully this should go close today.
2 points win on Peppertree Lane at 7/2
3.10 Cheltenham
One things stands out here and that’s the fact that very few of these are guaranteed to stay this trip and go on the ground.
Le Beau Bai is an ex David Pipe horse who looked fairly limited until last year. He then improved at a rate of knots over extreme distances on soft ground and ended the season rated 139.
Today, he gets to run off a mark of 131 (129 plus 2lbs o/h) and simply, if it is tuned up, it should outstay many of these today if it gets a decent pace (which I think it will).
The stable haven’t been in the best of form but in the past week, they had a winner and in the past month, they have had a winner and 4 placed horses, so they are returning to some sort of form I think.
This horse is 2 from 3 with breaks of 80 days or more between races and in a race that really lacks any depth behind the obvious favourite, this looks an obvious bet.
1 point each-way on Le Beau Bai at 10/1
3.20 Uttox
On paper, looks a nightmare competitive handicap chase really but the ground at Uttoxeter is heavy today, so you’ll need something that goes on the ground as a pre-requisite.
There aren’t many soft ground horses in here today but there are a few. Based on what we have seen on the racecourse, Magot De Grugy, Killiard Point, Black Ven, King Jack, Fourball, Aheadofhistime and Pret A Thou should cope OK with the ground.
Magot has always tended to need his first run of the season and that puts me off that one as this would be the obvious one.
There are a few dark horses in this race today but none more than King Jack and I’m going to suggest we take a chance on this one today.
King Jack was a very decent bumper horse and when it won on debut, it was thought that this would go one to be a very good chaser in time. It then ran well behind Diamond Harry and subsequently placed in two soft ground novice hurdles with lots of good horses in these races.
When he won his first novice hurdle, all the talk was about this one being a very decent chaser in time (has many good relatives) and therefore, his handicap season over hurdles was always going to be a stepping stone to chasing.
When he won his last novice hurdle, it was again commented that chasing was his game and he was rated 129 over hurdles at the time, so clearly, this was always going to be a chaser.
On his first two handicap starts over hurdles, ran a cracker twice and then unfortunately, on his third start, he had breathing difficulties. He was in second and then all of a sudden, he faded badly. He had a breathing operation the previous summer and clearly, he has a small quirk with his breathing.
Last year though, he went novice chasing.
He was pitched into a novice chase against the likes of Lodge Lane, Russian Around and so on and simply, he didn’t jump that well and finished a well beaten 6th. Racing Post commented that he ran slightly better and should have no trouble winning a novice chase.
Well, next time out, a well beaten 3rd again as it didn’t jump well and last start, well beaten again. Racing Post comment reads “King Jack was a fair hurdler, but has not taken to chasing.”
Clearly, 3 poor chase starts and today, he’s handicapped off a mark of 115.
Looking at the form, I reckon the reason he ran poorly in 3 novice chases was because the ground wasn’t soft enough.
On soft or heavy, his form reads 1433144. On g/s to firm, his form reads 1UR063PU.
Today, a horse that was always meant to be a chaser gets a chance to run in a lowly handicap chase off a mark of only 115 and most importantly, on ground that is heavy. Record on heavy reads a first and a third.
In past experiences, the best time to catch a horse with breathing issues may be first time out and this has gone really well after a break before, so I’m hoping it may be too good for these today.
Clearly, there is a chance this still doesn’t like fences and refuses to jump well and pulls up again but I think at odds of 16/1, it’s sort of factored into the price today.
0.5 points each-way on King Jack at 16/1
Related posts:
- Cheltenham and Fontwell Selection 1 – 1.45 Chel Pablo Du Charmil 1 point...
- Selection for Friday 20th November Account Bet 3.00 Kel Kirkside Pleasure 1 point each-way at...
- Exeter and Sandown Selection 1 – 2.10 Exeter Ironside 0.5 points each-way at...