Account Bet
4.20 Ham Royal Flynn 2 points win at 5/1 (Min Price) 6/1 (GEN)
Low Value Bet
5.20 Ham Lake Chini
Horse to watch
5.20 Ham Prospect Court
Going to go with the one selection today although I don’t really have too many reasons for not backing Lake Chini also apart from the price. It seems to maybe prefer a stiffer 5f these days and the course record of 4 runs, 1 placed effort is enough to put me off it at 7/2. I feel like it’s all a bit too obvious with this one today and it should win but given my current run of form, I’m not going steaming in at 7/2 in a competitve sprint handicap. In addition, I have a horse to follow running in the race, so I wouldn’t like to take on Prospect Court today at massive odds.
The selection is a horse I know very well and I’ve been waiting on this one getting heavy ground for about 18 months now as I tipped it over hurdles on heavy ground and it let me down that day but I expect it to go close today. Can never be sure it will return to form and over a trip that we don’t know it truly stays, it isn’t one to lump the mortgage on but I do think it’s a massive price today.
Yesterday was another poor run from the selection in 5th and it probably finished where it was meant to finish. I couldn’t have had two of the horses it beat home and there was always a chance another one would run below form on the ground, so 5th place was probably the par place. A bit annoying it couldn’t then run any better than this and it is clearly very regressive and is regressing quicker than the handicap mark which is unfortunate for me considering I tipped it yesterday.
The Nifty Fox was the one of the four I wanted to take on that had proven itself in soft conditions and it was no surprise to see it really well backed and win easily. My negative for this one was the class aspect but looking at the race, it was probably the weakest class C race you’ll ever find, so I maybe should not have looked beyond the winner. I guess I’m a slave to the form book though and based on an earlier run this season, the winner was easily held by Stoneacre Lad but as I’ve said above, Stoneacre is going backwards at an increasing rate of decline, so it was easy for The Nifty Fox to turnaround the form.
Another day, another loser and the common theme of this month continues. I feel like the first half of the month was a bit unlucky but the last week has been poor and I can really do with one running a race for us again to get some confidence back!
Good luck today.
Graeme
4.20 Ham
A really poor race if I’m honest and looking through them, I can’t help but feel that if Royal Flynn stays this trip, he surely has to go close.
I know this horse very well from a couple of years ago as I managed to catch it when it won a few races on really soft ground and as the horse has tumbled down the handicap since that peak spell, I’ve been waiting on it getting really soft ground but it has never happened until today.
I’ve discussed this in the past but very few horses love heavy ground. Some cope with it better than others and many can handle it but very few horses really love heavy ground as it is very tiring for them. This horse is one of these that absolutely loves it and simply, it slows the other horses down to this horse’s speed and allows it to run a race.
A pretty poor form student could spot this as it stands out like a sore thumb but in 3 starts on heavy, 2 wins and one placed effort. 3 starts on soft, 1 win. 14 starts on good to soft, 2 wins, 4 places.
If you do a comparison between firm and soft ground, 2 wins, 2 places from 27 starts on good,good to firm or firm. On softer ground, 5 wins, 5 places from 19 starts. You won’t get many better ground statistics for a horse than this!
This season, the horse has just been staying on very one paced the last couple of times and it actually looks like it wants a step up in trip these days. The last 3 races, it was staying on late every start and has basically just struggled to get competitive this season.
However, it was badky hampered last time and it was away out the back when the action was taking place up front and it basically just stayed on very late to finish 4th.
I saw an interview with the trainer of this one before the last run and she said the horse was in splendid form but needed softer ground than it was that day. I can’t believe this is running off a mark of 57 today in a race as weak as this one on heavy ground.
The horse hasn’t run in this class of race for years and the record reads 8 runs, 3 wins, 2 places and when it has heavy ground, it looks unbeatable against this class of opposition I think.
The doubts today are the jockey (don’t know much about him) and the trip (can’t be sure it stays or what the race will be run like).
I expect there is a good chance of a non-runner today and with the doubts about this staying the trip (I believe it will), I think we should go win only as I can’t help but feel it either wins on the bridle or not at all.
I can see this starting about 4/1 today as this will be spotted by many form students today.
2 points win on Royal Flynn at 5/1
5.20 Ham
A few stats for you. 10 runs on soft or heavy, 3 wins, 3 places. 7 runs in class 6 races, 2 wins, 2 places.
Lake Chini is one I’ve been waiting on running on soft ground for a while as it’s a much better horse on soft ground and dropping down to a class he does well in today, you have to think this will go very close.
Only issue for me is the course record 0 wins from 4 starts with one place and it tends to be the case that it stays well over 5f and this sharp 5f may catch it out. Not one to take a chance on at 7/2 though.
Prospect Court is a very well handicapped horse running on heavy ground for the first time in a while. 8 starts, 5 wins on soft or heavy is a dream record and I suggest we watch this one at big odds today. 13 runs in class 6, 3 wins, 2 places and it may well appreciate sprinting again and Jamie Kyne is a good booking. This is the value call in the race and I expect it to be backed today.
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