No Account Bets Today
Horses to watch
Archimboldo 3.05 Ludlow (EW)
Iceman George 4.20 South (EW)
Solis 4.30 Ayr (EW)
Kruggerand 7.50 Kemp (EW)
Golden Prospect 8.20 Kemp (EW)
Cactus King 8.20 Kemp (EW)
Yesterday was a perfect day and all it takes is a few more days like that and it will fully justify my decision to change the way the service works. One thing that has been apparent over the last 6 months is I tend to do better when I have a list of horses I like on the same day as it helps me to get the staking correct. It sounds very unprofessional to admit but I do find it easier to weigh up horses’ chances when they run on the same day! It would be easy to try to judge every horse by a horse that I’ve tipped before but it isn’t as easy as it sounds. I obviously do OK at it but I’m much more confident if I have 3 or 4 I like on the same day and then I can rank them and pick the best ones to tip now. I used to just tip them all but stake more on the better ones as we know but I’ve gone one step further now!
Yesterday, I liked the look of 4 races but two races did stand out as being easier races where I was sure the horse I liked would run well and therefore, it made it easy to tip two and watch the other two races. It felt good to call this decision right and a few more days like this and I’ll be feeling good about this game again!
A quick comment on yesterday. I quoted the best bet of the day was Craven and at 9/2, it was a decent bet. However, I didn’t hide the fact it was just as likely to hit a brick wall at some point during the race and that definitely happened yesterday. However, the horse was 17lbs well in yesterday and I can’t ignore things like this. Obviously, we got lucky as it was booked for 4th place before the leader fell but it doesn’t make it a silly bet.
Long-term, if you can get this sort of price on horses as well in as that one was, we’ll make serious money. It’s also the sort of horse that people will lay all day long but that’s a personal attack on the horse and isn’t linked to the form book. I’m not Doctor Dolittle, so I’m not going to worry too much about backing horses with a mind of their own. As long as it’s factored into the price (clearly was in this case as it should have been odds on if it really had 17lbs in hand!), then I will continue to go with the form book.
The winner won really well for us and confirmed the impression it created in the Kidlat race. That race has thrown up numerous winners now, so it is definitely worth watching for others from that race.
I don’t have a selection today but I’m very sweet on one tonight. The horse in question is Kruggerand and this is handicapped to win. However, it has a nightmare draw and is a massive hold up horse and the combination of these two factors at Kempton has let me down too many times at Kempton. Watch it as I want to be on it next time.
I’ve put up a few to watch today. There is no point in trying to filter these bets down too much since they are not on the account. I’m as well mentioning them all on days like this. We might be on some of them next time out.
3.05 Lud
Ignore the last few runs of Archimboldo as the ground was too soft and the last time he encountered decent ground, he won on the bridle. He ran an OK race last time and the reason he caught my eye was the jockey booking as he has an amazing record on the horse. Today’s race is a little bit tricky as it looks very competitive and quite a few could be better handicapped than this one, so happy to watch the race and not bet on it.
4.20 South
A massive eye-catcher last time was Iceman George and it looks a likely improver today. The horse was very inconsistent last year but it seemed to run a great race last time. It steps up 3f today which is interesting and it should suit it but it hasn’t proved it conclusively stays this trip yet.
My other issue is the fact it takes on Provost who is very well handicapped and may be a handicap blot.
4.30 Ayr
A bit of a stab in the dark but Graham Lee has a great record for Peter Montieth and Solis is his only ride of the day. Had decent form in Germany but no form in England but is now rated very lowly and when the money comes for this one, I’m sure it will win.
7.50 Kemp
I thought long and hard about this one but I can’t tip it as a strong bet. Kruggerand is very well handicapped and will strike very soon but it has a nightmare draw and will be held up last. To win at Kempton with these types, you’ll need one very well handicapped and I’d rather watch this tonight and get on it next time with more things in his favour.
8.20 Kemp
Golden Prospect was a horse I followed closely last season and it is on a great mark and if it bounces back to form, it would win this easily. I believe it is probably a 70+ rated horse and is handicapped to win but I’d be guessing tonight. One to watch for the future. Another to watch is Cactus King. Back to it’s last winning mark, over it’s last winning trip on it’s last winning course. 2 runs since a break over inappropriate distances to get it fit. Could be interesting if the money comes…
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