Selection 1: 5.20 Newc Badweia 1 point win at 5/1 (gen. avail)
Selection 2: 1.50 Nott Malapropism 1 point win at 12/1 (gen. avail)
An important day for me – let’s hope that I can set this service off with a bang ! I’m starting with two selections: the first looks to have a good chance in a tight race whilst the second is in distinct danger of becoming an old ‘friend’!
5.20 Newcastle
Key factors are soft ground and the distance of 7f.
1 – Won its maiden on soft ground on last run as a 2 year old and given an initial mark of 78 which seemed fair (2nd was subsequently rated 80). This year, has been found wanting on good ground on every run and only ran a couple of fair races. Twice this season, the RP reviewer has commented
that it needs softer ground and today is the first time it gets soft ground since the maiden win. Blinkers are also on first time today which can viewed as either a positive or a negative. Keep
2 – Won its maiden on soft over 7f on debut this season on first run. Thought good enough to run in the Fred Darling and has subsequently become very disappointing. Horse appears to have mastered the art of staying on very late and being never nearer whether it runs over 6f or 7f. Last 3 times now, it has either met trouble in running or stayed on very late to be never nearer. It has 1 length to make up with 1 on a run 2 starts back but RP reviewer said it should have been second, so it should turn around that form. Last time, never nearer 9th but only beaten 3 lengths and nothing came from off the pace. First two franked the form since. Keep
3 – Non Runner
4 – Ran everywhere from 6f to 11f this season. Horse looks tripless at the moment IMO. Last two runs over 6f were much better and looks OK handicapped now. My issue with backing a horse like this is that it looks very one paced and stays 10f well. I’d be very worried about it being outpaced today although it may try to make all and make it a very good test. 7f could be the making of the horse and has the blinkers back on after a good showing in them two starts back. Difficult to accurately weigh up. Keep
5 – Horse loves Hamilton but I’d have reservations regarding 7f today. It is basically a 6f horse who stays 6f well and it appears the trainer is trying something new going for 7f today. With 4 in the field, I’d be worried it may struggle with the trip today and I’d be inclined to take it on today. Dismiss
6 – Issue with this one is the fact it is clearly an AW horse. If this was on AW today, I’d really be keen on it but we have to guess about the surface a bit today. However, I quickly checked the last run on turf and it does appear to have been a little unlucky. This does look like it will stay the 7f trip no problem and it appeared to handle the soft before, so this doesn’t want underestimating. Keep
7 – This is the sort of horse I like to take on. It has won 2 races very well and been raised significantly in the ratings. Last time, it was over 11f after winning twice over 8f on very soft ground and back down to 7f, you would have to have a major, major doubt about the trip today. 8f horses who win on soft and who are tried over 11f on soft are unlikely to be very speedy, so I’d really hope that something with a bit of speed could beat this today. Dismiss
8 – Popped up twice on very soft ground by making all and needs a bog I think. However, was penalised a bit harshly IMO when it won 4 starts back and last 3 runs off a revised higher mark have saw it well beaten since. Off the same sort of mark here, it needs a bog and a career best. As it
stands, on good to soft ground, I couldn’t back this today. Dismiss
9 – Won two handicaps on AW but overall profile suggests it’s not that well handicapped. Last two starts have seen this beaten off this mark and unless it bounces back after a 3 month break, difficult to really fancy here. Dismiss
10 – Impossible to assess this horse. Maiden runs look decent but very badly beaten last time and changed stables. Probably didn’t handle the surface last time but I really don’t know if this well handicapped. Maidens show mixed form and I can’t work out the correct mark to be honest. I’d have to watch this run today and not back it. Keep
11 – I might pack it in if this wins..Dismiss
Right, I’m left with 1,2,4,6 and 10. Winner should come from one of them.
I couldn’t back 10 at any price if I’m honest, as I really can’t tell if it’s on a good mark or not. On a few form lines, it would win this but I couldn’t back it.
I have a problem with 4. They don’t know the correct distance for it and it may be 7f on good to soft ground but if the stable is guessing, then what chance have I got? I’d be happy to watch this one today.
6 is interesting but I have a small inclination to believe that it may be better on the AW than turf. Throw in the fact that it has been well held off this sort of mark the last 3 times and I’d pass on this today.
So that just leaves me with 1 &2 . Personally, I think they are both better than their current mark but both have issues with attitude. 1 doesn’t appear to put it all in and they try the blinkers today which may work. 2 is a bit of a character and is clearly well thought of but has
been disappointing.
It’s a really close call – not helped by the fact they are a similar price. However, spotlight has gone for 2, which is likely to see it overbet and I have a very slight preference for 1 anyway, so I’m going to have 1 point win on 1.
1 point win on Badweia at 5/1
1:50 Nottingham
This selection won’t surprise many of you – I’m going for Malapropism again! As you should be aware, I’ve been watching this horse very closely all season and it just continues to creep down the handicap, whilst running well.
If you read my email from Saturday 20th September (you can find it on the website), you will find most of the reasons why I am selecting this horse again today. When I subsequently reviewed that race, I made the point that I felt the horse needed to have the visor put back on. Well, either
someone from the stable reads my blog or it’s a complete coincidence, but either way, the visor is back on today !
Last time out, Mala was virtually backed into favouritism for a very strong Newmarket handicap. It ran a strange race: breaking well and leading for a while before being outpaced, only to stay on late again…
As I’ve said, I am hoping that the key to this horse is the head gear, which will make it run more enthusiastically. Last year it rattled up a hatrick in the visor and today it is back on today for the first time this year.
There are plenty of dangers as you would expect, but I’m happy with the fact that Malapropism is very well handicapped, well drawn and – most importantly – has the visor back on !
1 point win on Malapropism at 12/1
To read up to date Form Analyses please visit the Subscription page to find out how to join this service.
Related posts:
- Thursday 4th September 2008 ...
- Sun 12th Oct – Analysis for Goodwood & Bath I usually have a day off on a Sunday (Sat...
- Sat 4th Oct – Looking to Redcar to keep the run going Selection: 5.20 Red – Man of Gwent 1 point win...