Bet 1 – 4.30 Ascot Totally Focussed 1 point win at 20/1
Bet 2 – 5.05 Ascot Overrule 3 points win at 15/2
Bet 3 – 5.25 Hay Harvest Warrior 1 point win at 8/1
After the month I’ve had, I’m very pleased to see the back of it. As I’ve admitted, this has been the worst month of the year for me and I’m very disappointed with how it has went. I’m sure lots of you guys are as well but I can’t go back and change it now!
Today is the last day of the free trial and I’m sure lots of you will be pleased! The results will be posted on the blog this weekend and whatever happens today, they won’t make nice reading for me. In all honesty, this month is maybe a typical poor month apart from the fact a few seconds haven’t won. I know this may not make much sense but when you are looking at large runner handicaps as I do, to be able to select the winner is just as difficult as to select the horse to finish second. Ignoring the short prices, I’ve had one 11/1 winner, three 14/1 seconds and a 5/1 second. In a different month, one or two of these would have won and I’d be 10+ points in profit during a very poor month for me. It hasn’t happened though, so I’m facing a loss this month.
I’ve learnt an amazing amount this month as I’d never even used a 3 point staking plan before. As some of you will see in the future, I’m changing this staking plan to suit my style and I’ll explain this in the next few days on the new site. The biggest thing I’ve learnt though is how thin a line there will be between success and failure at this game. If I get two winners today, I’d end up in profit!
Thanks for all of the support from you guys this month and the banter has been great as always. I know a couple of you have had a decent month by trading my selections but that’s just the way it has turned out. About 70% of my horses have traded below half in running, so anyone incorporating a
trading strategy couldn’t really lose this month. The gamblers haven’t done anywhere near as well but that’s life.
It is quite fitting that on the final day of my selections, Fort Churchill and Overrule both run. Fort Churchill winning at 11/1 was the highlight of the month and Overrule getting beat was the low point for me. It should have won and I said beforehand it was the bet of the month and that no doubt
jinxed it going by my luck. Today, it is again one of the bets of the month and all it has to do is get a decent ride and a bit of luck in running and it should win.
One thing I’ve learnt this month though, is that it is never as simple as that when I select these horses……
Good luck with your future punting. I hope to see some of you across at the new site in the future.
Graeme
http://www.theformanalyst.com/
4.30 Ascot
This race revolves around the favourite here. However, no one can really say if it’s well handicapped or not and backing 2/1 chances in a 16 runner handicap won’t work in the long run in my opinion. Usually, I’m happy to dodge the races with these unexposed types as if they are well handicapped,
they tend to win. However, I have found an interesting one to take it on with I think.
There are some horses who are far better on the AW than turf and sometimes, it amazes me how they can be so different on each surface. I’m going to take a bit of a chance on an AW horse here and hope that it copes with the ground which should be good to firm.
Totally Focussed has been improving all season and has been eye-catching the last twice on the AW at Kempton. If it can repeat that form on turf here, I’d give it a very good chance of giving the favourite a run for its money today.
3 starts back, it got up late to win off of 75 and the horse is a massive hold up horse which means it is difficult for the handicapper to rate appropriately. Two starts back, it stayed on far too late after a 2 month break off a mark of 80 to be 3rd of 13. Last time, it was an eye-catching 5th of 16 to Premio Loco in a very decent handicap at Kempton and it again stayed on very late off the same mark again. It runs off this mark here on turf.
The horse is clearly capable off this mark as it has showed that the last twice. The big doubt concerns the ground today as it has disappointed on the turf before. If I’m being 100% honest, it’s AW form is on a different planet to its turf form but it’s only had 4 turf starts. 3 of these were in maidens where it had no chance and the handicap run was on soft ground which I’m assuming it doesn’t want.
If this was on the AW today, it would be much, much shorter. The change in underfoot conditions effectively creates the value today and it becomes a trade-off between how much ‘risk premium’ we need for the fact it may not handle the turf today. In my opinion, if this was on sand, it would be half
these odds today and I’d still back it. Therefore, this is enough of a margin for me. If it doesn’t handle the turf, it will be another horse well beaten for me this month but I’m sure you are getting used to that now!
The clear danger here is the favourite but I couldn’t back it at the odds today.
1 point win on Totally Focussed at 20/1
5.05 Ascot
I’m not going to spend long discussing this as Overrule jumps off the page. It hammered the other 13 horses last time apart from the winner and is a winner without a penalty today. The horse is absolutely thrown in today as it races off the same mark (it has been raised 3lbs for finishing second but it gets to race off old mark here).
If anyone wants convinced, read my earlier to notes on this horse this month. I didn’t want to mention the word “cheating” as I could get prosecuted I guess but I’m sure you’ll get the point if you read the earlier notes.
I’m really, really glad that it’s going in such a competitive race today. It’s 22lb lower now than the start of the season and I can’t be any more confident about a horse in an 18 runner handicap. Last time, it travelled like a horse rated much better than this mark (it probably is much better
than this mark) and with a better ride, it would have won.
It’s a bit of a shame it’s an amateur rider’s race today as it means we need a bit more luck than usual (and I’ve had none all month!) but if this can repeat the last run, it will win this.
It has a decent jockey today and he has deserted Fort Churchill to ride this, so it adds to my confidence. Too many dangers to mention and horses such as Optimus and Bell Island are well handicapped but they shouldn’t finish in the same parish as Overrule if it can repeat the last run.
I said last time this was the best bet of the month and it lost! I won’t tempt fate again but I’ll have my maximum on this to win.
3 points win on Overrule at 15/2.
5.25 Haydock
Very sweet on Harvest Warrior here as the horse is crying out for a fast pace over 8f. It ran very well last time on only its second start this season and actually hit the front 2f from home over 10f. This is easily the freshest horse in the race today and the pace in the race could set it up
for this.
Last year, it won very easily over C&D on this sort of ground and it has the look of a horse who is about to hit top form this season. It doesn’t have a great draw today which is a negative but it really does have the look of a horse who is well handicapped and running under optimal conditions.
One trait I have picked up is that it doesn’t travel well in races and stays on late over 8f. Therefore, this could look beat at an early stage today and still get up to win, so I wouldn’t rip up any tickets at halfway. Again, this race is very, very competitive. The favourite is too short in my opinion and I read that Mark Winstanley put it up in the Weekender, so it isn’t going to get much bigger.
I think the issue with a horse like this is that we have missed too many weddings. It’s only a matter of time before the funeral and whether it’s today or next week, it isn’t going to keep winning off this sort mark as it is creeping up the handicap for not even winning.
If Harvest was drawn better, I’d maybe have been tempted for 2 points but I don’t want to be accused of chasing my losses, so 1 point win on this today.
1 point win on Harvest Warrior at 8/1
Graeme
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