Bet 1 – Poppy Day 5.00 Haydock 3 points win at 25/1
Bet 2 – Overrule 5.10 Yarmouth 3 points win at 8/1
These selections are probably not the most orignal selections for anyone who has followed me this month but I can’t see why these won’t win today. I’ve had a look at both races and the races aren’t great. They are large fields and very competitive but if these two run to form (and improve for the step up in trip), they both should run well and in my opinion, win.
I’ve struggled with the staking to be honest. My heart says 3 points win and
my head says 1.5 points each way. All month, I’ve listened to my head and
it’s only got me in trouble. I never bet each-way and it’s about time I
started doing as I please and not what pleases others.
I would suggest that everyone does what they feel comfortable with. If you
like each-way, back each-way. Don’t listen to me. I personally don’t like
each-way and you can maybe see why going by the fact I’ve had more horses
tailed off than placed this month but that’s just me! If these run to form,
they win. If they run poorly, they finish tailed off. Where does the place
come into it? In cases like River Falcon where it runs to form and gets
beaten a nose, I live with the fact that 50% of the time, it will win by a
nose and 50% of the time it will lose by a nose.
Both of these should be well backed today and Overrule could start as
favourite I guess, so be wary of backing at a very short price.
Poppy Day is likely to be weak on BF early as it reached 65 last week, so
please don’t go daft on it early this morning. Keep an eye on oddschecker
and if it starts to drift, let it go wild on Betfair. Once it reaches crazy
odds, then go to town on it.
Apologies for the plagiarism below but I’ve talked at great length about
both of today’s selections earlier this month and I’ve used lots of my
rationale from before…..
I don’t feel like I’ve read a horse all season as well as Poppy Day and the
fact it runs at Haydock is probably the final clincher as it’s the one place
you can enter a horse at the moment and be guaranteed heavy ground. I have
my suspicions that this was already being aimed at this race before it ran
last time, so we just jumped on it one race too early. At least we can jump
on today again!
5.10 Yarmouth
Fort Churchill is starting to appear as a distant memory now with how this
month has turned out but there is a horse going today with nearly an
identical profile. Like Fort Churchill, it is even trained by Bryan Ellison
which is no coincidence…..
If you remember, Fort Churchill had been beaten out of sight for the last 9
starts and had form figures of 040000005 and was well beaten every start.
Last time, it showed improved form in my opinion by still getting well beat
but by beating the horses that it raced against at the back of the field!
Overrule has form figures of 06000004. Sound familiar?
It has been beaten by 10 lengths, 18 lengths, 18 lengths, 8 lengths, 6
lengths, 7 lengths, 17 lengths, 11 lengths and 5 lengths in all these
starts…..Sound familiar?
Similar to Fort, why the hell do I think it will return to form today?
I think there is a very compelling argument for backing this today. Let’s
look at its career history.
It was trained by Jeremy Noseda as a 3 year old and made its debut in a
maiden. It was well fancied but ran poorly. On its second run, it popped up
to win a maiden over 10f at 18/1 from a subsequent group race winner. The
horse was given a rating of 91 by the handicapper.
In 3 subsequent handicap runs, it ran poorly and it was clear that it was
never going to win off this sort of handicap mark. At the end of its 3 year
old career, it was sold out of Noseda’s stable and moved to Bryan Ellison’s
yard.
One point about Bryan Ellison is that he is a thinking man’s yard. He knows
the time of day with his flat horses. He’s not quite up there with Mick
Easterby but he isn’t daft…..
This season, the horse started off by running over 7f. Remember, it won its
maiden over 1m 2f! It started the season rated 88.
On the first two runs, it was badly outpaced and never had a chance in
either race. It was dropped down to a mark of 83.
It then ran in a 7f race where the front-runners went way too fast and set
it up for stayers. It stayed on very late past tired horses and finished a
well beaten 6th. Dropped another 3lbs.
Next race was again 7f where is fell out the stalls and was tailed off
throughout. Dropped another 3lbs to 77.
It then ran in a 7f race at Warwick. It was held up last, stayed on very
late and stayed on past beaten horses. Clearly, was starting to run into
some sort of form. Still well beaten though, so dropped another 3lbs.
Next race, was a massive punt in the morning (SP was 5/1) and was racing
over 8f for the first time this season. The stable expected it to show
improved form….
Was drawn on wrong side of the track and had no chance. First 10 home in the
race were on other side of the track. Beaten miles again and dropped 2lbs.
Next time, running over 8f again at Newmarket. Ryan Moore booked. Massive
punt again in the morning…..SP was 4/1 (amazing as had no form!).
4 horses raced alone and dominated the race. Overrule was not one of them!
Draw pulverised the horse again and had no chance. Tailed off again. Dropped
4lbs. Now rated 68.
Last time, stepped up to 1m 4f. WOW. Runs all season over 7f and 8m,
suddenly jumps in trip by 4f which is nearly unheard of in flat racing.
Backed for the third time in a row and SP was 18/1 after being backed from
33/1.
Held up in last place, never made a move near the leaders, stayed on past
beaten horses late on and finished 4th, beaten absolutely miles by the front
three.
However, here’s the important part. It gave the front 3 about a 20 length
start and only got beaten 10 lengths. Importantly, it managed to beat every
other in the race and it effectively won the race it was competing in. So,
it won a race very easily. Obviously, the handicapper has to react and it
has been dropped another 2lbs.
One thing we have subsequently learned is that the form is absolutely rock
solid. One horse that Overrule beat by 8 lengths was She’s The Lass. It
followed up by 4 lengths on the bridle off the same mark next time. This
will be rated about 10lbs higher now.
The second that day when Overrule was 4th was a horse called Ainama. This
has since followed up by winning a race by a length but it was given a
Spencer special where he never moved on it. The handicapper has reacted by
raising it 13lbs for that win which is laughable but you get the idea! The
form is rock-solid……
Today, Overrule runs off a mark of 66. At the start of the season, it was
running off 88. This horse has dropped 22lbs in the ratings and in my
opinion, it has never had a chance to show its true form. If this is back to
form today, we are talking about this being a penalty kick.
Get stuck in to it……
Suggest we have 3 points win on Overrule at 8/1.
5.00 Haydock
As you know, I was very keen on this horse last time and it didn’t let me
down. It ran a remarkable race where I backed it at 65 on Betfair and it
traded 4 IR. It finished full of running and I doubt I’ve read a horse more
perfect than this horse all season.
Here is my rationale for backing it last time:
In many ways, this is bordering on the ridiculous here but I really like
Poppy Day.
Now, on the form book, this has zero chance and I mean zero chance. Well
beaten in a maiden race and well beaten in 2 claimers. It doesn’t look on a
good mark for what it has done thus far either if you want the truth.
So, why do I think it may run well here at a massive price?
Ok, this is an ex 3 miler point to point horse. These only like heavy going
and as such, it will relish today’s conditions.
On the form book, it looks useless. However, I love this stable and really
understand the way it works, so let’s delve a little bit deeper.
If I was guessing, I’d say this needs 2m on heavy to show best form before
it ran. Trainer also thought so too, so begins in 1m 4f maiden at 200/1.
Well beaten but stayed on very late to take 6th place after falling out the
stalls.
Trainer thinks “shit”, this has ability after all (why run an ex point to
point 3m horse on flat in first place!). Next run, in a claiming race over
7f!!!!!
Makes me chuckle. Starts off flat career by staying on late over 12f, let’s
drop it back 5f Mick. Great idea……
Amazing really, on softish ground, falls out of stalls, stays on late and is
never nearer although beaten miles. Stayed on past beaten horses on the
ground.
Next time, 7f again, falls out of stalls, stays on late and is never nearer
beaten miles. Stayed on past beaten horses on very soft ground.
Today, steps up 3f to 1m 2f and running off a selling handicap mark in all
honesty which is not surprising given the form it has showed thus far!
Any horse which stays 3m on the jumps, stays on late over 12f and stays on
past beaten horses over 7f twice is interesting. I still think it may need 2
miles but it showed enough over 7f to make me think it may not be that much
of a stayer (a reason for not staying at NH game?).
This is danger of becoming a treasure hunt but here is my post-race review
from the blog after the race:
My final selection was Poppy Day in the 5.00 race. I backed it at 50+ to win
and at 6.8 to place on Betfair (first 4 places) and it ran an OK race and
was finishing fast in 5th place at 33/1.
I made my feelings clear this morning about this horse and it ran the sort
of race I thought it would. It all depends on what the Racing Post analyst
makes of the race but in my opinion, the horse lost its position mid race,
was actually last at one stage, and then as soon as they straightened up, it
ran like it was Shergar. It finished 5th having been miles back and in my
opinion, over a longer trip and on this ground, it may hose up if Mick can
find another easy race like this one. Has the price gone now?
OK, so that brings you up to date. Today, this horse runs over 1m 6f at
Haydock on heavy ground. It all adds up and I think the stable may go for a
massive touch on it.
I don’t have much to add. I think this is running over its optimal distance
and on its optimal ground for the first time in its flat career.
Obviously, this is a very competitive race and there are numerous dangers.
However, we haven’t seen the true ability of this horse yet this season and
I think that it is much, much better than it has showed on the racecourse.
Similar to yesterday, if Mick really fancies this one (why wouldn’t he?),
this could start around the 10/1 mark or even less.
Suggest we have 3 points win on Poppy Day at 25/1 and make sure you get the
best price!
Graeme
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