Bet 1 – 4.00 Thirsk: Sphinx 0.5 points win
Bet 2 – 4.30 Thirsk: The Bear 0.5 points win
I was in two minds this morning about tipping either of these and both are very marginal decisions. The value isn’t really there if I’m honest so I’m going to do something a bit strange and have 0.5 points win on both.
It was either have 0.5 points win on both or select nothing at all and due to the fact that I’m slightly frustrated at the fact I’m working fairly hard on form for no selections, I’ll take a chance on both of these today and bank of the fact that in the long-run, I’ll get more of these marginal calls right than wrong.
4.00
I’m going to keep this analysis short and sweet as I spent around 45 minutes
on the race and it can be analysed by looking at two main formlines.
Dr Sharp and Squirtle were 2nd and 4th in the same race last time. They
should finish side by side but I’d much rather be with Dr Sharp due to the
fact it looks better handicapped overall IMO and the trainer of Squirtle
(who I really like) is having a nightmare season and this would put me off
this today if I’m honest.
The other form line is Bollin Felix and Sphinx. Bollin beat this by 5
lengths and is 9lbs worse off today. However, Sphinx was the only horse to
come off the pace in the race and get anywhere near the winner. Sphinx gave
it around a 5 lengths start and got as close as it could to it. It also
finished 10 lengths clear of the 3rd.
IMO, Bollin cannot be Sphinx today if both run to form and if Sphinx stays
this extra 2 f (small doubt in my mind). The bookmakers have priced up
Bollin at 2/1 generally today and Sphinx is 6/1.
For those that like laying, there is also a form line between Bollin and
Winged D’Argent today. They met previously on these identical terms and
Winged hammered the horse by 3 lengths easily. On this form line, Bollin
can’t beat this either. At around the 2/1 mark, it’s an obvious lay
although I’d never lay a horse!
The reason for the 0.5 points bet is simply because I can’t really separate
Dr Sharp and Sphinx. In addition, Winged can’t be ruled out and I’d also be
afraid of Mith Hill running better than it looks on paper.
So, in a very tricky race where the fav is beatable in my opinion, the horse
that should beat it the easiest is Sphinx. Hence, I’ll have a nibble on
this horse.
0.5 points win on Sphinx at 6/1.
4.30
This race is very tricky and trying to find the winner is fairly difficult.
At Thirsk, even in a 9 runner sprint, the draw can kill the low drawn horses
and I’ve witnessed this many times across the years.
However, looking at the high drawn horses, it’s difficult to fancy any of
them if I’m honest, so the draw shouldn’t make too much difference.
The summary of my analysis was that most are out of form, not that well
handicapped and won’t like the ground.
A horse like Fire Up The Band makes me laugh as if it returned to form, it
would carry all of these on its back and still win. However, a quick look
at it’s recent runs and we can see it’s running to a mark of around 50-55 at
the moment, so it’s not well handicapped. Amazing to think a horse that is
running 40lbs below its peak mark and is not well handicapped!
The Bear and Blazing Heights both stand out to be honest but the market
knows this and they are both short priced.
However, I’d be afraid of the draw for both and with someone like Windjammer
in the field who can trail blaze, he may grab the rail and no one may get
near him. Fire Up The Band could bounce back to form, Babyshambles and
Inspainagin are both coming off the back of very poor runs but both have a
have a squeak.
The best single piece of recent form in the race is The Bear’s last run when
it was 3rd. I can see the 2nd won next time and I backed the 5th when it
subsequently won also, so the form has a really strong look to it.
Suggest 0.5 points win on The Bear at 4/1 although as I hope the above short
summary shows, this is another very tricky race to sort out today. The Bear
is just the call at the prices but it is very marginal. If it was drawn
higher, I’d maybe be more confident but the draw is more crucial at Thirsk
than people generally think IMO.
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