Bet 1 – 3.30 Catterick Overrule 1 point win 11/2
After yesterday’s amazing analysis and effort, I’m going back to what I do best. Finding a horse that looks out of form and looks like a hopeless task. Similar to Fort Churchill!
This is very spooky, but there is a horse going today that is very, very
similar in profile to my winner earlier in the week. Like Fort Churchill,
it is even trained by Bryan Ellison which is no coincidence…..
If you remember, Fort Churchill had been beaten out of sight for the last 9
starts and had form figures of 040000005 and was well beaten every start. Last
time, it showed improved form in my opinion by still getting well beat but
by beating the horses that it raced against at the back of the field!
Overrule has form figures of 06000004. Sound familiar?
It has been beaten by 10 lengths, 18 lengths, 18 lengths, 8 lengths, 6
lengths, 7 lengths, 17 lengths, 11 lengths and 5 lengths in all these
starts…..Sound familiar?
Similar to Fort, why the hell do I think it will return to form today?
I think there is a very compelling argument for backing this today. Let’s
look at its career history.
It was trained by Jeremy Noseda as a 3 year old and made its debut in a
maiden. It was well fancied but ran poorly. On its second run, it popped up
to win a maiden over 10f at 18/1 from a subsequent group race winner. The
horse was given a rating of 91 by the handicapper.
In 3 subsequent handicap runs, it ran poorly and it was clear that it was
never going to win off this sort of handicap mark. At the end of its 3 year
old career, it was sold out of Noseda’s stable and moved to Bryan Ellison’s
yard.
One point about Bryan Ellison is that he is a thinking man’s yard. He knows
the time of day with his flat horses. He’s not quite up there with Mick
Easterby but he isn’t daft…..
This season, the horse started off by running over 7f. Remember, it won its
maiden over 1m 2f! It started the season rated 88.
On the first two runs, it was badly outpaced and never had a chance in
either race. It was dropped down to a mark of 83.
It then ran in a 7f race where the front-runners went way too fast and set
it up for stayers. It stayed on very late past tired horses and finished a
well beaten 6th. Dropped another 3lbs.
Next race was again 7f where is fell out the stalls and was tailed off
throughout. Dropped another 3lbs to 77.
It then ran in a 7f race at Warwick. It was held up last, stayed on very
late and stayed on past beaten horses. Clearly, was starting to run into
some sort of form. Still well beaten though, so dropped another 3lbs.
Next race, was a massive punt in the morning (SP was 5/1) and was racing
over 8f for the first time this season. The stable expected it to show
improved form….
Was drawn on wrong side of the track and had no chance. First 10 home in
the race were on other side of the track. Beaten miles again and dropped
2lbs.
Next time, running over 8f again at Newmarket. Ryan Moore booked. Massive
punt again in the morning…..SP was 4/1 (amazing as had no form all season!).
4 horses raced alone and dominated the race. Overrule was not one of them!
Draw pulverised the horse again and had no chance. Tailed off again. Dropped
4lbs. Now rated 68.
Last time, stepped up to 1m 4f. WOW. Runs all season over 7f and 8m,
suddenly jumps in trip by 4f which is nearly unheard of in flat racing. Backed
for the third time in a row and SP was 18/1 after being backed from 33/1.
Held up in last place, never made a move near the leaders, stayed on past
beaten horses late on and finished 4th, beaten absolutely miles by the front
three.
However, here’s the important part. It gave the front 3 about a 20 length
start and only got beaten 10 lengths. Importantly, it managed to beat every
other in the race and it effectively won the race it was competing in. So,
it won a race very easily. Obviously, the handicapper has to react and it
has been dropped another 2lbs.
One key form lines to track the success of the race for us is going to be
Leslingtaylor. It should finish side by side with Overrule today going by
the last run but Lesling raced up with the pace that day and got a 20
lengths start on overrule. We beat it by 1 length. If my race reading is
right, that doesn’t have a hope in hells chance of beating Overrule
today. Zero
chance!
Today, Overrule runs off a mark of 66. At the start of the season, it was
running off 88. This horse has dropped 22lbs in the ratings and in my
opinion, it has never had a chance to show its true form.
On Tuesday, I said Fort Churchill was like a penalty kick where he had
missed his last 9 kicks. Today, this is a penalty kick where not only has
he missed the last 8 kicks, he has hit the corner flag 4 times, hit row Z 3
times and kicked it out the stadium once!!!
However, if he gets it on target today, he will not only stroke the ball
home, he will hammer it into the back of the net!
Interestingly, the racing post dismissed the horse’s chances and more
amazingly, the tissue maker had it priced up at 25/1.
If this was 25/1-40/1 this morning, I was going to recommend 25 points
each-way as this sort of price comes along once every ten years for a
penalty kick.
However, at odds of 11/2, we’ll be happy with 1 point win. No point in
backing each-way as similar to Fort Churchill, it either wins easily or
finishes tailed off as usual!
1 points win on Overrule at 11/2
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