Bet 2.00 Redcar: The Kilkenny Cat 1 point Each-Way
Warning – Early indications are that this looks very weak on Betfair and no one wants to back it. It could be a potential massive drifter and therefore, may be worth asking for 30+ on Betfair or waiting for bookmakers to push it out to 25/1+.
The gamble on its debut came on course and likewise, on course gamble last time. I don’t see the weakness this morning as a major issue. However, if it reaches 50+ on Betfair, I would start to get suspicious though that it may need the run after 2 months off.
2.00 Redcar
1 – Should handle the ground but was hammered off this mark last time and
not well handicapped as maiden win was poor form it now appears. On many
form lines, can’t beat lots of others today. Dismiss
2 – Last run was better but fully exposed and vulnerable to anything that is
improving, dropped 2lbs from last run but this looks tougher. Dismiss
3 – Handicapped on second run but looks to have too high a rating for what
it has achieved in my opinion. Dismiss
4 – Held by number 2 on last run and no real reason why it should reverse
form. Doubts about the ground also even though won on soft on debut, been
stuffed twice on it. Dismiss.
5 – Looks fully exposed and held by number 1 on earlier run. Doubt about
the trip here also as I don’t think it wants 7f at this stage of its career.
Dismiss
6 – Beaten 5 lengths in 3 maidens over 6f and best run was second run on
softish ground. 3 maidens have proved very good maidens but has been
handicapped on second run which was best run. On an OK mark and should
improve for step up to 7f back on soft ground. Keep
7 – Will love the ground and handicapped to beat number 1 today. Ran badly
last time but key could be the ground as best two runs have been on very
soft ground. Keep.
8 – Form is there for all to see but I have two major concerns. It has been
raised 8lbs now after getting beat in two handicaps and I don’t think it
will relish the ground as much as what some others will. These factors
combined means I’m happy to pass this over. Dismiss.
9 – Held by 1 on earlier running and therefore, I’d be happy to pass this
over. OK handicapped but needs to improve. Dismiss.
10 – Very closely weighted with 7 and should be able to beat 1 on these
terms based on earlier run. Difficult to separate this and 7. Keep
11 – Difficult to analyse after it won on debut and could really be
anything. Beaten horses have all been stuffed since but likely to improve
from first run. Will relish ground also. Keep.
12 – On one or two formlines, this looks very well handicapped. You need to
dig deep to see it but the maiden when it was a well beaten third looks a
strong race now. Can probably ignore last run as was on firm ground and
prefers soft. Keep
13 – Handicapped on its last run and winner was beaten fair and square off a
little bit of a higher mark subsequently, so doesn’t look well in
today. Doubts
about the ground also. Dismiss
14 – Best run was first run but well beaten last time on soft over this
trip. Doesn’t look well enough handicapped and will need to improve
significantly. Dismiss
15 – Had Seb Sanders on board for debut which was amazing as stable not
noted for early 2 year olds. Backed from 10/1 to 3/1 and finished tailed
off last in an average maiden. Second run was much better on softer ground
over 6f and had no chance with front two who are now rated 106 and 85.
Finished
just on the tails of these two in fourth. Last time, backed again from 12/1
to 8/1 on firm ground and really struggled on the ground. Finished a well
beaten 5th but likely to be due to the ground. Pedigree suggests that it
needs soft ground to be at it best. Interesting jockey booking here as Egan
only ridden 21 times in 5 years for this stable. On it’s second run, it
easily beat 5 and now receives 10lbs from it. Had a break of 79 days from
last run which is also intriguing as may have been given time to strengthen
up after being very disappointing. Could have been jarred from firm ground
last time? Keep.
16 – Beaten out of sight last time on soft over 7f and held by 15 on earlier
run. Dismiss.
17 – Ran in 3 very good maidens and never been shorter than 33/1 in any run.
Beaten 14 lengths plus each start, so you’d have to guess about handicap
mark today. Not the sort of horse to lay but I can’t back it unless I
guess. Dismiss
18 – Beaten a fair way all starts and similar to horse above, impossible to
know if it is on a good mark. Have to pass it over. Dismiss
19 – 4lbs out the handicap. Beaten miles every start on firm ground and
impossible to fancy here. Dismiss.
20 – Been hammered in a seller and 6lbs out the handicap. Impossible to
back. Dismiss.
Phew, that was hard work!
I’m left with 6,7,10,11,12 and 15. Hence, left with 6 horses which means I
have ruled out 14 at the first stage. Wow….. Not bad in a race where it’s
5/1 the field!
7 and 10 are impossible to separate here, so it will be difficult until I
see how they are priced in relation to each other.
6 is spotlight’s selection and is at 4/1 in the tissue in the Racing Post. As
I hinted at above, it will no doubt improve but based on pure form, it isn’t
that well handicapped. I’ll pass this one over.
11 is too speculative to bet on as it is impossible to tell if it is well
handicapped or not. At a forecast of 7/1 in the RP tissue, I’d pass on
this.
Left with 7,10,12 and 15 then.
Having seen the prices this morning, 15 jumps off the page at me.
7 is coming off a bad run, 10 is half the price of 7 which is crazy, 12 is a
little too speculative.
I was thinking last night that if I could get 10/1 on 15, I’d be a happy
guy……
It’s a best price 20/1 and I really don’t understand the price to be honest.
If my reading of the second run is correct, this is a handicap blot today
and even allowing for the large field, it has to run well.
Suggest we up the stakes a little and we gamble 2 points on this one today.
I’m going to suggest 1 point each-way though as I would hate it to run well
and for us to not receive a return.
The interesting point is the fact that I dismissed the short priced
favourite today (8). My main concern is that I don’t like backing horses
that get beat in handicaps and are raised significantly in the ratings. This
has been raised 8lbs for not winning a race and therefore, if it couldn’t
win off a rating 8lbs lower 2 runs back, why should it win this today?
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