Bet 1 – Acquifer 4.20 Lingfield 12/1 freely available 1 point win
As we all know, my greatest weakness is the fact that I think I can unpick every handicap. Buoyed by the fact I selected yesterday’s winner, I got stuck into 4 massive field handicaps last night. Not surprisingly, I came up with a selection in every race and when I wrote my blog post late last night, I hinted that I would either select no horses or select all 4 for 0.5 points win.
After a good nights sleep, I have come to my senses!
One horse is about 10 times more likely to win than any of the other 3 and therefore, having a level stakes bet on each one would be wrong. As well as being wrong, I don’t think selecting 4 horses is very professional and probably shows a bit of indiscipline trying to creep into my tipping and we are only on day 3!
Therefore, I will only tip the horse that represents the best value and the one most likely to win in my opinion. I’ll take a watching brief on the other 3.
To keep my professional approach going, I won’t mention any of the other 3 and even if they win, I won’t moan on the blog about it. I promise!
4.20 Lingfield
After a promising run last time when I highlighted it may run well on the blog, I think now is the time to back Acquifer. It had 3 runs on turf (6f) to get a handicap mark as a 2 year old and was awarded a mark of 75 which looked harsh on paper. However, on it’s AW handicap debut (6f Ling), it was backed from 6/1 to 11/4 and ran really well to be 3rd. It was then stepped up to 7f on its next run here again and ran very well to be 4th beaten just over a length. It didn’t appear to stay the 7f trip.
On its first 4 runs this season, it has been campaigned over 7f. It has improved with each start and has been running in some very competitive handicaps where it has been a massive outsider. 2 runs ago, it ran in a maiden race against some nice unexposed types. It finished on the tails of the leaders in 6th place.
Last time, it returned to Lingfield’s 6f track and was running off a rating of 65. I expected it to show much improved form and thankfully, I was right as it stayed on very late to finish 4th but was still well beaten. However, it was held up in last place throughout and only stayed on past beaten horses. It was never put into the race by the jockey in my opinion.
It doesn’t take a form expert to see that it was crying out for 7f and I feel the combination of Lingfield’s AW and 7f may see the horse run its best race of the season. Its best run of its life was arguably over this C&D as a 2 year old but as I said above, I wasn’t sure it stayed the trip. Clearly, it does get 7f this season and therefore, I’ve no worries on that score.
It’s 2lbs lower than last time and I’m hoping that it may be ridden slightly closer to the pace than its previous runs this season. If they give it a chance, I expect it to show what it can really do today.
The race is full of less exposed types and potential improvers. The obvious danger would be the Noseda/Moore combination of Gulch’s Rose. However, the world and his wife know it’s on a decent mark after it was given an appalling ride last time (by Moore!) when it should have probably won.
However, it was 8/1 last time in a weak race, so that was the time to catch it. 5/2 in today’s race makes no appeal to me and chuck in the draw of 13 and I couldn’t back this with bad money. It may win on the bridle but we’ll happily pass over at odds of 5/2.
The others are all a bit of a mixed bunch but nothing jumps off the page as being well handicapped. I reckon the selection is probably the best handicapped horse in the race to be honest (exc the favourite), so it is a fairly clear cut selection.
I did think about backing each-way as I’m sure it will run well today if not held up too far off the pace but it hasn’t been beaten less than 6 lengths all season, so it will have to be a win bet I’m afraid.
1 point win on Acqifer
Related posts:
- Wednesday 24th September 2008 Bet 1 – Hawaana 4.55 Good 0.5 points win at...