Bet 1 – Fort Churchill 2.00 Goodwood 8/1 freely available 1 point win
Bet 2 – Trafalgar Square 4.55 Goodwood 7/1 freely available (after 6 non-runners) 1 point win
Non-runners have decimated the second race especially and odds are subject to change I guess but from what I can make out, the odds above are available at the moment.
2.00 Goodwood
This race is nowhere near competitive as it looks on paper and over half the field can be ruled out very quickly by me.
This is actually a good race for anyone who is interested in form reading to try to unpick as there are a few very recent form lines concerning a few of these and the best form line isn’t too difficult to unpick. If anyone wants to give it a try and write a few notes on it, drop me a note and I’ll let you know if I agree.
However, I’m going to ignore these form lines as one horse stands out head and shoulders above the rest here for a number of reasons here.
I could write a book on why we should back Fort Churchill here but as I’ve shown myself over the years many times, just because there are a thousand reasons for backing a horse doesn’t mean it will win or even run well.
A few key points.
The horse appears to be in terminal decline and is dropping in the handicap like a stone. Only beaten less than 8 lengths once in last 9 starts. Am I crazy?
In last 9 starts, never finished better than midfield and in most races, has been tailed off in the final 2 or 3 home.
Therefore, why the hell would I select this as a win bet today?
As I stated before, this is my ideal handicap horse to look for. A horse badly out of form, dropping down the handicap and looking useless. All we need to do is try to guess when it will return to form. Simple as that.
There are many reasons to believe that today is the day.
I backed this 2 runs back when it ran at Goodwood and I expected it to return to form. I watched the horse very closely throughout the race and it travelled like a dream at the back of the field in a similar race. Just when it was about to be pulled out to challenge, it was badly hampered and the jockey rightly decided to let it come home in its own time.
Last time, I didn’t think it would run well as it clearly likes Goodwood best and it ran an OK race under today’s jockey.
I think it has returned to form 2 runs back but didn’t get the chance to show it. Last time, it was held up too far off the pace and couldn’t land a telling blow. It still ran an OK race though.
The key point about the horse is its handicap mark. It has been dropped another 5lbs from the last 2 runs and it now rated 70. Last year at Goodwood, it ran the best race of its life to win off 80 by 5 lengths. It was then raised to a mark of 89 and has struggled in every race since.
I think it is true that the horse is maybe deteriorating this season but I think the handicapper has taken a huge chance dropping it another 5lbs after the last run.
The last point about the horse is the fact that when it wins, it tends to win very easily. One common trait with horses who win very easily every time is that they are very difficult to win with as they get punished severely by the handicapper. This is why this has struggled so badly this season but today is the first day it has looked as well handicapped as this in a long, long time.
I get the feeling that this will either win or finish tailed off last but I reckon it is like a penalty kick being taken by someone who has missed their last 20 kicks. If they strike it sweetly, it will fly in and everyone will say that 8/1 was an amazing price. If it loses again, everyone says that was obviously going to happen.
Suggest we have 1 point win at 8/1 today.
4.55 Goodwood
This race has been decimated by non-runners but I think that Trafalgar Square is worth a punt at odds of 7/1 for 1 point win.
The horse is very well handicapped now and has shown a few glimmers of form recently that it is about to return to form.
Apologies for the short analysis but I did spend over half an hour on the race last night but with 6 non-runners, most of my analysis is now irrelevant. I wanted to back this at 20/1 today……
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