Bet 1 – Franksalot 2.10 Lingfield 1pt Win 14/1 Ladbrokes (and maybe others?)
Bet 2 – Ray of Joy 5.10 Lingfield 1pt Win 16/1 freely available
Unfortunately, I can’t access oddschecker at work but I can see Irish Racing.Com which shows best prices with some large bookmakers.
2.10 Lingfield
I narrowed this down to the front three in the betting (4,5,7) and the old timer (1).
The front three are potential improvers but I would say that this is already factored in to their prices somewhat. Another thing to bear in mind with the front three is the reason they are rated as low as this is that they aren’t very good and I doubt they will ever be very good if I’m honest
However, Franksalot has been a very decent horse in the past but is clearly on the decline. It has run in very competitive handicaps on each start this season and has been beaten between 5 and 8 lengths the last 5 times. However, it hasn’t been disgraced once in any of these races and has finished in midfield in the last 3 races.
On the formbook, Franksalot appears to be a horse out of form, running at Lingfield for the first time since Jan-07, on the downgrade, blinkers back on for the second time in its life and little hope against potential improvers. It’s also been off the track for 2 months which again would be a massive doubt.
However, I think there is a strong argument for backing this today. Firstly, in my opinion, this horse looks a much better horse at Lingfield’s AW track than on turf. On its last 11 runs over the past few years here, it has never been beaten more than 5 lengths in any start.
The 62 day absence is also a big positive for this horse. Its career record is littered with little mid season breaks and it usually runs very well back after a break. The horse usually likes to be freshened up therefore.
2 years ago, it had a 2 month break after the turf season and returned in December to win very easily here. Sound familiar?
Its best run this season was on the AW at Kempton when it was 3rd off a mark of 56. It hasn’t run on the AW since and yet has dropped to a mark of 52 today from average turf runs.
Another huge factor today is the fact that it is an apprentice race. It is ridden today by the best jockey in the race and this can prove crucial. The horse is a massive hold up horse and needs a good pace and a good ride. It may get both today.
The blinkers back on today is quite interesting as it has only been tried in blinkers once before but ran poorly. However, I like the fact they are trying the blinkers on the AW first run back after the break as it means they are trying something new out. I think we may see a vastly improved effort from it today.
It’s currently priced at around the 14/1 mark which seems fair to me as I would suggest that odds of 8/1 would be a fair reflection of its chance today.
To be fair, there is a potential negative today. The trip. The horse has only a 3rd place to its name from 10 starts at 1m or further as it is really a 7f horse and has the speed to win over 6f. However, the horse has a profile of a horse who is not getting any quicker and they are running it over 7f and 1m more nowadays, so I’m sure it probably does stay the trip. It is always held up and finishes late, so I don’t see the trip as a big negative if I’m honest.
5.10 Lingfield
I could write a book on this race as it is impossible to solve at first glance but I’m very sweet on the chances of Ray of Joy here.
Basically, its best run was on its debut when it ran a never nearer 5th and based solely on this run, it is well handicapped today. However, the handicapper has chosen to handicap it on its last run when it was a well beaten 5th in a maiden beaten 8 lengths.
However, close inspection of this race shows that it may not be that badly handicapped on the last run. The winner won by 5 lengths on the bridle after being heavily backed by the stable and is clearly different class to all the others in the race. Interestingly, the second in the race was rated 68 and it appeared to run to this mark, so the handicapper handicapped the field using this yardstick.
The horse has since come out and won a competitive handicap and therefore, a mark of 61 for Ray of Joy doesn’t look too bad now.
The key for me though is the jockey booking. Winston has had 10 rides for the stable in 5 years and has never ridden a 2 year old from this stable. The stable is very shrewd and only uses a top jockey when they feel they are not wasting his time. This is the jockey’s first ride for over a year for the stable.
Interestingly, Winston has never had a winner from the 10 rides but the fact he is booked today is a massive hint.
The race is very competitive and I’m not even going to try to pick holes in the opposition. The favourite is a false favourite in my opinion and I can’t believe it’s such a short price. I’d lay this one all day.
There are 4 others in the race with a similar profile to Ray of Joy and they should all run well. However, none have solid form lines and it involves guesswork on my behalf. The form of Ray of Joy is there for all to see and on the form book, it should win this if it repeats its last run.
The negative would be the fact it has never run on the AW. However, its half brother was The Jailer who loved the AW and therefore, I don’t see this as a big negative.
At a price of 16/1, this would be a good bet today and I’d be surprised if it doesn’t run very well.
I’m suggesting win bets on both as they are speculative in nature and will either run very well or very poorly. Hence, I don’t see these as a good each-way proposition
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